Brexit and the lost art of political leadership
- 2016-12-20
- By ReimaginingEurope
- Posted in Tim Cross
A number of ‘events’ currently hitting the UK and Europe will affect the answers to all of the questions posed by ‘Our Common Futures’. Continuing Globalisation, which cannot be stopped but is by no means all benign; the declaration of a ‘post-truth’ society – sometimes called the ‘Democratisation of Truth’ – and the increasing anarchy of the digital/social media world will all have their impact as law, order and secure borders are further undermined, fracturing Europe’s structures and its social cohesion.
The ‘People’ are taking on all aspects of Government on a scale never seen (or possible) before. A cobweb of networks and interfaces are driven by a broader connectivity which is not – and cannot be – easily controlled in Western Democracies. Everyone under 25/30 lives within a digital/social-media world – one where prejudices are reinforced through the echo-chamber of the web and where great emotions sweep through at rapid speed – far too rapidly for current government structures to keep up with. In a post-Truth world, disinformation and propaganda i.e. lies rule; all too quickly 1 + 1 becomes 3.
Whilst post-Truth doesn’t equal post-Reality, intellectual and over-institutionalised political elites are becoming increasingly detached from their people. Europe’s leadership remains in thrall to the idea of free movement, open borders, multiculturalism and economic interdependence/political union. The increasing frustration felt by these and other elites - including (far too) many in the media - is reflected in disparaging comments about ‘populism’, a dismissal of others views and opinions, and a failure to recognise that the views of the ‘Demos’ (the people) need to be heard in a democracy and not dismissed out of hand.
People and power need to re-connect - and if the elite are to regain their lost authority they must understand and respond differently; self-righteous demands for a re-run of the Brexit vote, alongside various academic and political declarations that Britain must be ‘punished’ for voting to leave the EU and that in the future ‘only those who swear an oath of allegiance to the EU should be allowed to stand for election to the European Parliament’ are all somewhat reminiscent of my Grandmother’s comments about ‘intellectual idiots’ and such people being ‘educated well beyond their intelligence.’
The overall reaction to Brexit has been a sight to behold. In the UK every comment by a member of the European elite has been/is met with cries of fear/despair - reflected in the media as an indication of the certainty of impending disaster - God only knows how we/Churchill would have got through 1940 – 1942 with today’s media and political leadership, which so sadly lacks courage and self-belief.
So What? At the end of the day it all comes down to Leadership – morally courageous leadership. In many senses it has always been thus but, overall, there is currently a critical lack of such leadership, which seems unable to conceive of, let alone cope with, the forces now at play. The current ‘system’ constantly fails to do any ‘Contingency Planning’ – which is why there were genuinely no plans on how to set about implementing Brexit (on either side of the Channel) in the event of a vote in favour of leaving.
A good question asked at a recent session of the Global Strategy Forum was: ‘do we make plans now for a relationship with the EU as it currently is, or do we think through what it might well become in the next couple of years – which could well be very different from what it looks like today?’ This may be an inconvenient question, but if indeed Europe as a whole is failing to meet the challenges of the age and there is going to have to be change – either greater political/economic union or less - then the UK can approach the negotiations from a position of strength – not simply fight a ‘rearguard’ action. But it needs clarity of purpose – a clear strategic intent – if it is to do so.
The architecture of Government needs to change, and along with it we need wiser, better prepared leaders with broader experience. But where is the new generation of leaders to come from? Whilst it will be very interesting to see the impact of Trump appointing so many non-‘old-style’ politicians over the next couple of years, the reality is that here in the UK very few capable people seem to go into politics today.
The harsh truth is that we have precious little time to up-skill Whitehall. Overwhelmed and unable to deliver 21st century infrastructures, health and community services let alone provide the statecraft required to prepare for a post-Brexit world, the only way to give the National Security Council and Cabinet Office the intellectual horse power to do the joined-up thinking and staff-work required is to outsource the function.
What we need is a 21st century – very different – version of Bletchley Park. A co-ordinating strategic think engine at the heart of a network of networks which can produce the uncomfortable thinking that Whitehall is culturally and politically unable to do; really joining the dots and spread of all-age talents that will always elude the civil service. Although it must be a major partner, supporter, and beneficiary of this unconstrained thinking, the government must not control the work and outputs of this essential body - which can raise Whitehall’s game and give us an edge in the post-Brexit world. Cue for philanthropists and imaginative private-public sector financial arrangements for the new Bletchley?!
About the author
Major General (Retired) Tim Cross CBE served in the British Army at every level, from leading a small Bomb Disposal Team in Northern Ireland to commanding a Division of 30,000. He also served in Iraq, Kuwait and the Balkans. He was appointed CBE for his work in leading the NATO response to the Kosovo Humanitarian crisis. Retiring in January 2007 Tim was the Army Adviser to the UK House of Commons Defence Committee for 5 years. He is a Local Lay Minister in the Church of England and the Chairman of the Board of Theos – a public theology Think Tank. He is a Visiting Professor at three UK Universities and is the President of the Institute of Civil Protection and Emergency Management. A Trustee of the Leadership Trust – where he is also a Tutor - and a Defence Adviser to a number of UK/International Companies, Tim is an itinerant preacher and international speaker
Certainly we need leadership. But ‘the people’ were fed with falsehoods which no Remain leader had the nerve to lambast. I go with Yeats –
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;…The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.
Brexit is an exercise in self harm. We can only get the EU taken by the throat and reformed by staying in it. We can only stand up to the mad mullahs – Trump and Putin – by being in a bigger critical mass.
I don’t see any lack of intelligence or ability in today’s politicians, but lack of independent thought and vision. In my own sphere of farming the NFU is transfixed with the benefits of being members of the EU, deeply certain that we will fare worse outside the EU despite the fact that the Common Agricultural Policy fails spectacularly to help farmers across 28 countries using one-size-suits-all programmes.
Since June 23rd there have been as many signals that the UK will prosper after Brexit as there have been cautions that we will struggle. It is likely that more doors will be open to us if we are clever than are closed by the EU.
Those who think the Europeans will not cut off their noses to spite their face, because they need the trade with us as much as we need it with them, may be disappointed. During David Cameron’s negotiation in 2016 there was no sign that the EU could break out of its straight-jacket and it will be a measure of how much they can change if they display pragmatism over ideology at this stage.
It is likely that our final trading package with the EU will be settled at lengthy night-time, last-man-standing meetings between the top brass and it will take several years thereafter before the new regime is in place. For this we need the brightest, the best and the bravest there to represent us.
Roll on April when Article 50 is triggered and let the game begin!